Bayesian identification and estimation of radon-related increased hazard rates of cancer death in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946–2014) - IRSN - Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire
Article Dans Une Revue International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health Année : 2024

Bayesian identification and estimation of radon-related increased hazard rates of cancer death in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946–2014)

Résumé

Objective : A recent update of the French cohort of uranium miners added seven years of follow-up data. We use these new data to look for new possible radon-related increased risks and refine the estimation of the potential association between cumulative radon exposure and four cancer sites: lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer and leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, which is not radiation-induced). Methods : Several parametric survival models are proposed, fitted and compared under the Bayesian paradigm, to perform new and original exposure-risk analyses. In line with recent UNSCEAR recommendations, we consider time-related effect modifiers and exposure rate as potential effect modifying factors. We use Bayesian model selection criteria to identify radonrelated increased hazard rates. Results : Under the assumption of a linear exposure-risk relationship, we found a substantial evidence for a strictly positive effect of cumulative radon exposure on the hazard rate of death by lung cancer among French uranium miners. Given the current available data under the assumptions of a linear or log-linear exposure-risk relationship, it is not possible to conclude in favour of the absence or the existence of a strictly positive effect of chronic exposure to radon on the hazard rate of death by kidney cancer. Regarding death by brain and CNS cancer, there is a substantial evidence for the absence of radon-related effect. Finally, under the assumption of a log-linear exposure-risk relationship, a small positive radon-related effect appears when looking at the risk of death by leukemia (excluding CLL). Conclusion : This study investigates the existence of radon-related increased risk of death by lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and CNS cancer and leukemia under a Bayesian framework and assumptions of linear and log-linear exposure-risk relationships. If there is no doubt in the interpretation of the results for lung cancer and brain and CNS cancer, the conclusion is less clear-cut in the case of kidney cancer and leukemia (excluding CLL). A future update of the French cohort, increasing the follow-up time for miners, may help to reach a clearer conclusion for these two cancer sites.
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irsn-04746914 , version 1 (21-10-2024)

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Julie Fendler, Chantal Guihenneuc, Sophie Ancelet. Bayesian identification and estimation of radon-related increased hazard rates of cancer death in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946–2014). International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health, 2024, ⟨10.1007/s00420-024-02098-4⟩. ⟨irsn-04746914⟩
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